3 min read

Monday Memo (On a Tuesday)

When economist Ingo Fiedler dug into hundreds of thousands of online poker hands...he discovered something that'll change everything you think about winning.
Monday Memo (On a Tuesday)

A Byte of Knowledge

When economist Ingo Fiedler dug into hundreds of thousands of online poker hands...

He discovered something that'll change everything you think about winning.

The best hand only won 12% of the time.

Which means?

Most victories had nothing to do with having the best cards...

They came from positioning, psychology, and pure strategy.

And this is exactly like marketing...

You could have the most innovative, groundbreaking product in the world...

But without mastering how you show up in the market...you're dead in the water.

Just look at Microsoft in the 90s...

Their products weren't the best...

But their distribution strategy crushed everyone else.

That's why the smartest marketers focus less on getting their offer in front of the right people...

Telling the right story...

And building unstoppable traffic streams.

Because just like poker...

It's not about the cards you're holding...

It's about how you play the game.


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Something to Ponder

We Asked – AI Answered

Our Question: 

"Why does 60 degrees feel cold in summer but warm in winter?

AI's Answer:

The Power of Contrast and Expectation Bias

Our brains don’t judge experiences in isolation—they compare relative to expectations.

  • Contrast Effect
    • Our perception of anything is shaped by what came before it.
    • Example: A glass of water feels lukewarm after handling ice but hot after touching something cold.
    • In marketing: This is why price anchoring works—if the first price you see is $2,000, a $500 offer feels like a bargain.
  • Expectation Bias
    • In summer, your brain expects warmth, so a cooler-than-expected 60°F feels cold.
    • In winter, your brain expects freezing temps, so 60°F feels pleasant.
    • In marketing: This is why perceived value matters. Customers don’t just judge a product objectively—they compare it to what they expected.


Psychological Anchoring & Seasonal Adaptation

  • Hedonic Adaptation
    • Humans adjust to their environment quickly.
    • If you spend months in 90°F weather, 60°F is a shock.
    • If you’ve endured months of 20°F, 60°F feels amazing.
    • In marketing: This explains why customers quickly adjust to “new normals.” If you train them to expect frequent discounts, full price feels “too high.”
  • Context-Dependent Memory
    • People recall information better when they’re in the same context as when they learned it.
    • Example: 60°F in winter reminds your brain of warmth, while 60°F in summer reminds it of cooling.
    • In marketing: This is why seasonal product positioning works. Selling hot chocolate in winter triggers cozy nostalgia, while in summer, it would feel out of place.

The Marketing & Business Takeaways

  1. Context Shapes Perception
    • Just like temperature feels different based on contrast, prices, offers, and messages are judged relative to expectations.
    • Example: Apple deliberately makes past models feel outdated before launching a new iPhone.
  2. Anchoring & Framing Matter
    • How you introduce a product impacts its perceived value.
    • Example: A “$200 discount” on a $1,000 product feels more valuable than just saying “$800.”
  3. Leverage Seasonal Adaptation
    • People’s preferences change by season—use this in messaging.
    • Example: Starbucks only launches Pumpkin Spice Lattes in fall because people are psychologically primed to want warm, nostalgic flavors.
  4. Scarcity & Novelty Work Like Seasonal Shifts
    • Just as 60°F feels different because it's rare in different seasons, limited-time offers increase perceived value.
    • Example: McDonald’s McRib only appears seasonally, making it feel special and increasing demand.

Thanks for reading the Monday Memo.

Until next time!

The AI Marketers

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